TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 11:28 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Ciara Miller and their partner will be eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before October 7, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to this outcome, with Guillermo Rodriguez and their partner at 1.0%. The market resolves based on official eliminations announced by the show’s producers, as determined by the resolution source. Keep a close watch on the results of the live show on October 6, 2026, as that is the final performance before elimination decisions are made and the market will resolve the following day.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified celebrity and their partner are officially eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 at any point before October 7, 2026. Elimination is defined to include being voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntarily withdrawing, disqualification, or producer removal. The declaration of elimination must be made through official program broadcasts, the show's website, verified social media accounts, or official press releases. If the entire season is canceled without any eliminations being declared, all markets resolve to 'No.' Multiple simultaneous eliminations count, and an initial elimination counts even if the contestant later returns. However, eliminations immediately reversed in the same episode, temporary suspensions, medical holds, or finishing as runner-up in the finale do not count toward resolution. The markets are independent of any official affiliations with the show or its producers.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as there is limited public data on expert predictions for eliminations on Dancing with the Stars. However, prediction markets often aggregate information from a wide range of sources and can reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect. This means the probabilities implied by this market may offer a different perspective than individual expert opinions, potentially incorporating factors that analysts may overlook. It's worth noting that prediction markets tend to be more dynamic and responsive to new information than static analyst predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a particular contestant being eliminated. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability of that outcome. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current prices reflect the collective assessment of all traders on the platform, and the market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing opinions about the contestants’ performances and fan support. This creates a constantly updating forecast of the likely elimination order.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, following the conclusion of Episode 5 of Dancing with the Stars. The outcome will be determined by which contestant is officially eliminated during the episode, as announced on the broadcast. The result will be verified against credible public reporting of the show’s outcome. Traders holding contracts on the eliminated contestant will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on contestants who remain will not. The market’s resolution is based solely on the official results of the show and does not rely on subjective interpretations.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Contestant performance during the next live show is a major driver, as strong or weak performances will influence public opinion and betting behavior. Public polling data and media coverage can also shift sentiment. Unexpected events, such as a contestant injury or withdrawal, would also have a substantial effect. Finally, any news or rumors regarding judging decisions or behind-the-scenes developments could move the market as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions about the upcoming elimination.
