TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.5b

24H VOL:

$81,379,001

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,361,103,189

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,147,932,753

329,221

Markets across

33,102

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,100

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

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58%

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China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
🌟New
Politics
polymarket
limitless

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Total volume:
$3,255,176
Volume 24h:
$1,201
35%
Liquidity:
$73,681
11%
Open interest:
$646,951N/A

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

 - Polymarket

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? - Polymarket

7.5%

-0.4%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Vol.

$29.7k

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

7%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 7.5¢ buys you 1,333 shares | Odds: 7% Total Payout: $1,333 | Net Profit: $1,233 Multiplier: 13.33x | ROI: 1,233% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks the likelihood of military clashes between China and Taiwan, and between China and the Philippines, occurring before the end of 2026. Each market defines a 'military encounter' as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or direct military engagement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both markets share identical resolution logic regarding the definition of a military encounter and the resolution timeframe.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

  • A military encounter must involve the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or direct military engagement
  • Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or minor damages, do not qualify
  • Resolution occurs based on consensus of credible reporting

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Intentional ship ramming: Counts toward resolution only if it results in significant damage or sinking of a military ship
  • Coast Guard involvement: China Coast Guard actions count, but Taiwan's and Philippines' Coast Guard actions do not
Timing: Resolution occurs after December 31, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. A confirmed military clash between China and Taiwan before that date triggers one result, while no such incident by the deadline leads to the alternative.

Key signals that could shift odds on this market include major political statements from leaders, significant military exercises near Taiwan, changes in defense agreements, or unexpected regional crises. Each development is assessed for its implied risk of escalation, often causing rapid price adjustments as traders reassess the probability of an actual conflict occurring before the market closes.