TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 6:11 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Metascore listed on Metacritic for "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" (https://www.metacritic.com/game/call-of-duty-modern-warfare-4/) as of seven days after release, at 10:00 AM ET, is at least the specified value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For games released on multiple platforms, Metacritic displays a default Metascore, that being the Metascore for the game on the platform for which it has the most critical reviews. For the purposes of this market, the Metascore refers to that of the default platform as of seven days after release at 10:00 AM ET. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. PS5 or Xbox Series X/S), it will count. If Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 is not released by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Metascore listed on Metacritic for "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" (https://www.metacritic.com/game/call-of-duty-modern-warfare-4/) as of seven days after release, at 10:00 AM ET, is at least the specified value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For games released on multiple platforms, Metacritic displays a default Metascore, that being the Metascore for the game on the platform for which it has the most critical reviews. For the purposes of this market, the Metascore refers to that of the default platform as of seven days after release at 10:00 AM ET. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. PS5 or Xbox Series X/S), it will count. If Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 is not released by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market participants on Polymarket are indicating a roughly 50% chance that “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4” will have a Metascore of at least 90. This contrasts with initial analyst forecasts, which were more divided. While some industry experts predicted a score in the high 80s, others anticipated a score exceeding 90 based on the success of previous titles. This market provides a different perspective than traditional pre-release predictions, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd and potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the final Metacritic score. The price of a 'Yes' share reflects the probability of the game achieving a Metascore of at least 90, while a 'No' share represents the probability of it scoring below that threshold. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people believe the game will score highly, the price of 'Yes' shares will increase, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final Metacritic score for “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4” will be used to determine whether the game achieved a Metascore of at least 90. The resolution will be based on the aggregate score published on Metacritic, representing the consensus of professional game reviews. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome that matches the final verified score.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Early reviews from prominent gaming publications will be a major driver, as they will shape initial perceptions of the game's quality. Any significant leaks or controversies surrounding the game's development or content could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, positive or negative word-of-mouth from players who gain early access could shift market sentiment. Major gameplay reveals or trailers showcasing the game's strengths and weaknesses could also cause fluctuations in the price of shares in this market.
