TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the critical reception of a major video game by monitoring its aggregated review score from a prominent rating platform within a set timeframe after its launch. The outcome depends on whether the game's overall quality assessment meets or exceeds specific numerical thresholds.
Kalshi
The event determines whether the Metascore for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 exceeds specified thresholds seven days after its release at 10:00AM ET. For each market, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if the game's Metascore surpasses the defined value (e.g., above 10, above 20, up to above 95). If no platform is specified, the first platform listed on the Metacritic page for the game is used for scoring. All markets are independent, with each threshold representing a distinct resolution criterion. The markets are descriptive references to Metacritic and do not imply endorsement or affiliation with the platform.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide pre-release predictions for game scores, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to incorporate a wider range of information and adjust their expectations as new details emerge. This can lead to divergences between the market's implied probability and initial analyst estimates, particularly as the release date approaches and more reviews become available. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to news and sentiment shifts that analysts may not immediately capture.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different Metacritic score ranges at any time. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that score range occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will fluctuate, providing a dynamic and real-time indication of expectations for the game's critical reception. The market depth shows the available buy and sell orders, giving traders insight into potential price movements.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final Metacritic score for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 will be used to determine which contract settles at 100%. The Metacritic score will be sourced from the official Metacritic website and will represent the weighted average of professional game reviews. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual Metacritic score range will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for other ranges will not.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Early previews and hands-on impressions from gaming journalists will likely cause price fluctuations as traders react to initial feedback. Unexpected delays in the game's release, or significant controversies surrounding its development, could also move the market. Furthermore, the performance of similar games released around the same time could influence expectations. Finally, any major marketing campaigns or changes to the game's features could shift trader sentiment and alter the odds in this market.
