TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$143,246,370
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,403,290,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,452,035,386
405,032
Markets across
30,543
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,690
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 9:54 PM EST
Kalshi
Two national soccer teams compete in a scheduled match where the outcome determines the winner based on who scores more goals within the standard playing time.
The event resolves based on the result of the Bonaire vs Saint Kitts and Nevis professional Concacaf Nations League soccer game scheduled for September 25, 2026. A market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If the match ends in a tie, the Tie market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours away from the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price following defined procedures. The markets are independent of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven purely by individuals expressing their beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially early on, as prediction markets can incorporate information and analysis that sportsbooks may not immediately factor in. However, as the event approaches, the odds on both may converge as more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate probabilities, as they profit from correctly predicting the event's outcome. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and generate a forecast.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Bonaire vs Saint Kitts and Nevis match as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution. The exact payout amount will depend on the price paid for the contract.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Sep 26, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could significantly shift expectations. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also impact trading activity. Major upsets in other related matches, or even broader shifts in public opinion about the teams' overall performance, could also contribute to price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals can help traders identify potential opportunities and adjust their positions accordingly.