TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 3:32 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of November 7, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Polymarket
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of November 7, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, analysts are also heavily favoring one song to reach the #2 spot on the Billboard Hot 100, but the degree of confidence expressed in prediction markets can differ. This market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of perspectives than a single analyst’s opinion. While both sources aim to predict the same outcome, the market’s dynamic pricing adjusts in real-time as new information emerges, potentially offering a more up-to-date assessment than static analyst forecasts. It’s important to consider both when forming your own view.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether a particular song will be the #2 song on the Billboard Hot 100. The price of these shares reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The current trading volume for this market is $12,644.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the Billboard Hot 100 chart rankings for the week of November 7 will be used to determine which song held the #2 position. The market will then settle to reflect whether the outcome aligned with the predictions made by traders. This is based on official chart data released by Billboard, and it’s important to note that the resolution is dependent on the accuracy of that reporting.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected surges in streaming numbers or radio play for any of the contending songs could significantly shift the odds. Major promotional events, like television appearances or viral social media campaigns, could also impact a song’s popularity. Furthermore, any news or developments related to the artists involved, such as album releases or controversies, could cause traders to reassess their predictions. Keep an eye on music industry news and chart updates for potential catalysts that could move this market.
