TOTAL VOLUME:

$115.9b

24H VOL:

$78,242,292

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,351,118,393

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,123,310,921

314,014

Markets across

30,653

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,372

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
Science and Technology
kalshi
predict
polymarket

Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Total volume:
$1,720,314
Volume 24h:
$62,088
24%
Liquidity:
$51,051,118
0.19%
Open interest:
$20,932
0.09%

StepFun

all

2 markets

Predict

99.9%

Polymarket

0.1%

consensus

50%

+49.6%

spread

0.1-99.9%

(99.8pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

0%20%40%60%80%

Aug 17

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Vol.

$60k

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 06d:07h:16m

Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99.9¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.1% | APY: 5% 6 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 0.1¢ buys you 100,000 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $100,000 | Net Profit: $99,900 Multiplier: 1000.00x | ROI: 99,900% APY not meaningful 6 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks which Chinese AI company will have the highest-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard as of August 31, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for StepFun having the best Chinese AI model stands at 99.8% across Kalshi, Predict, and Polymarket, with resolution based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard. Watch the leaderboard rankings as of the August 31, 2026 deadline to see which company claims the top spot.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical criteria for determining the highest-ranked Chinese AI model from the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard as of August 31, 2026.Primary resolution logic: arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard

Core resolution logic:

  • Chinese companies include Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun.
  • Models are ranked by their position on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard as of August 31, 2026 at the specified time (12:00 PM ET for Polymarket/Predict, 10:00 AM ET for Kalshi).
  • Tiebreakers: If models are tied in rank, they are ordered by Arena score (including unrounded values). If still tied, alphabetical order of company names is used.
  • The market resolves to the company occupying the first place after applying all ranking and tiebreaker rules.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Leaderboard Unavailable: If the arena.ai leaderboard is unavailable at the check time, markets remain open until it becomes available again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, markets resolve to 'Other'.
  • Time Zone Difference: Polymarket and Predict resolve at 12:00 PM ET, while Kalshi resolves at 10:00 AM ET. The earliest valid snapshot will determine the outcome for all markets.
Timing: Resolution occurs on August 31, 2026, at the specified times for each platform. If the leaderboard is unavailable, resolution is delayed until it becomes available.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

The event identifies the highest-ranked Chinese AI company model on the Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) as of August 31, 2026, at 10:00am ET. Qualifying companies must have their global or primary operational headquarters in mainland China. If multiple companies tie for the highest rank, the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology applies; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank. In such cases, each tied contract resolves to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down. The event encompasses nine distinct markets, each corresponding to a different Chinese AI company, with resolution contingent on achieving the top position in the specified ranking.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Chinese AI leader market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time odds and volume across platforms. It provides a consensus view of trader sentiment toward which firm will lead in Chinese AI by Aug 31, 2026. With total volume at $1,648,472 and 24-hour volume of $85,581, it reflects broad market engagement and helps users spot trends in this high-stakes prediction market.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The ruling body will compare the leading Chinese AI firms' publicly announced models, market share data, and expert assessments to determine the top performer as of that date.