TOTAL VOLUME:

$115.9b

24H VOL:

$90,087,139

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,351,118,393

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,131,582,423

316,324

Markets across

30,916

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,401

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Best AI model on September 7?
🌟New
Science and Technology
polymarket
kalshi

Best AI model on September 7?

Total volume:
$5,260
Volume 24h:
$2,083
1,010%
Liquidity:
$1,389
28%
Open interest:
$1,971N/A

claude-opus-5-high

 - Polymarket

claude-opus-5-high - Polymarket

51%

-44.5%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

40%50%60%70%80%90%

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 24

Vol.

$2.2k

·

Resolves Sep 7, 2026

Time left: 14d:05h:42m

Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?

51%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 51¢ buys you 196 shares | Odds: 51% Total Payout: $196 | Net Profit: $96 Multiplier: 1.96x | ROI: 96% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 14 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks the performance of various AI models as determined by two different platforms and timeframes. Polymarket focuses on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard ranking on September 7, 2026, while Kalshi measures token usage thresholds in OpenRouter's AI Model Rankings for the week of August 24-30, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in resolution metrics and timeframes between Polymarket (single leaderboard snapshot on September 7, 2026) and Kalshi (token usage thresholds over August 24-30, 2026)Hero tip: Treat these as entirely separate markets since they measure different things in different time periods. Polymarket requires monitoring arena.ai's leaderboard on the exact date, while Kalshi depends on OpenRouter's token statistics from a prior week. No correlation between outcomes is expected or required.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard ranking at 12:00 PM ET on September 7, 2026, with specific tie-breaking rules for models. AutoEval models are excluded. Other resolves if the source is permanently unavailable.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on whether OpenRouter's AI Model Rankings token counts exceed specified thresholds (110T to 124T tokens) for the week of August 24-30, 2026. Each threshold represents a separate market that resolves to Yes if exceeded.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on OpenRouter's publicly reported AI model token usage for the seven UTC calendar days from August 24 through August 30, 2026, measured at 10:00 AM ET on August 31, 2026. Each market has a specific numerical threshold (ranging from 110T to 124T tokens); if the reported usage exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. All markets share identical timing and data source specifications, with 'token usage' defined strictly as the figures included in OpenRouter's AI Model Rankings—not total industry-wide token consumption. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with OpenRouter, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.