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495,177

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Belarus vs. San Marino
kalshi
predict
polymarket

What is the result of Belarus vs. San Marino?

Volume:
$1,741,663

Belarus

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 3, 2026

Closed: Oct 3, 1:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Belarus

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$186,172
N/A
N/A
$145,673
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Belarus

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$175,128
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

BELA

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$12,158
$136,277
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Draw

View
1%
6%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$167
$15,428
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$255,573
N/A
N/A
$200,800
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Belarus vs. San Marino)

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,268
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

SMR

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$632
$24,293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

San Marino

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$818,733
N/A
N/A
$635,411
Settled
No
polymarket

San Marino

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$105,790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a UEFA Nations League soccer match between Belarus and San Marino on October 3, 2026, asking which team will win or if the match will end in a draw. Currently, the consensus probability of Belarus winning is 100.0%. This aggregate reflects data from Kalshi, Predict, and Polymarket, and will resolve based on official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers (UEFA). Keep an eye on the match itself as it takes place on October 3, 2026, to see if the outcome aligns with current expectations.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms utilize the same core resolution logic, defining the outcome as the result within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and employing a consistent fallback source hierarchy.Primary resolution logic: Official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers (UEFA).

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the result of the match within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
  • If the game is postponed, the market remains open until the game is completed.
  • If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, win markets resolve to 'No' and draw markets resolve to 'Yes' (Polymarket/Predict) or 'Tie' (Kalshi).
  • Official statistics are the primary resolution source, with Flashscore, Sofascore, and consensus reporting as fallbacks.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Availability: If official statistics are unavailable within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, Flashscore data is used. If Flashscore is unavailable, Sofascore is used. If neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting is used. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours, the market resolves 50-50 or to 'Draw' where applicable.
  • Score Revisions: Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the completion of the match (within 90 minutes plus stoppage time) and within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, or as soon as official statistics are available.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Saturday, October 3, 2026 between Belarus and San Marino.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the official result of the Belarus vs San Marino UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 3, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome for either Belarus or San Marino occurs only if that specific team wins the match in regular time. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' If the match is canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect the resolution, as only results within 90 minutes plus stoppage time are considered.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Saturday, October 3, 2026 between Belarus and San Marino.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the Belarus vs. San Marino match. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $1,741,663, with $1,671,755 traded in the last 24 hours. While Polymarket currently favors a specific outcome, Kalshi may present a different consensus view. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of market sentiment surrounding the match, offering a unique perspective beyond traditional odds-making. The dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes as expressed by traders on both platforms, providing a consolidated view of expectations.

Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to differences compared to traditional sportsbook odds, which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while prediction markets aim for accurate probability assessment. While both attempt to predict the outcome, the mechanisms and information sources differ, potentially resulting in varying probabilities for the same event. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant news breaks.