TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$143,246,370

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2,403,290,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,452,035,386

405,032

Markets across

30,543

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,690

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
polymarket
predict
kalshi

Who will win Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays?

Volume:
$1,859,604

Toronto

 - Kalshi

Toronto - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 13, 2026

Closed: Sep 13, 4:34 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Toronto

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$575,802
N/A
N/A
$284,065
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 7.5

View
100%
53%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$229,302
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 6.5

View
100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$38,302
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 8.5

View
100%
60%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$27,676
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$24,848
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
61%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,456
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
64%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,694
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 5.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,130
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$795
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$310
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$229
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.7¢
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays

View
2%
Yes 2¢No 98¢
—
$8,989
$16,108
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$205,471
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Baltimore

View
0%
42%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$714,650
N/A
N/A
$447,753
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,251
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NRFI

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,542
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$786
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Extra Innings

View
0%
94%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a single MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays, specifically whether the Toronto Blue Jays will win by more than 4.5 runs. Currently, the consensus probability of Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5) winning is 99.6%. This aggregation combines data from Polymarket, Predict, and Kalshi, with resolution based on official final statistics from https://www.mlb.com/scores. Keep an eye on the game played on September 13th, as the official results from that date will determine market settlement, as per Polymarket’s resolution criteria.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market refers to a game scheduled for September 13, 2026, while Polymarket and Predict refer to the game scheduled for September 13, 2024. This represents a fundamental divergence in the event being predicted.Hero tip: Do not trade these markets as if they are referencing the same event. Kalshi's market is effectively a long-term prediction on a future game, while the others are short-term predictions on the current game.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the outcome of the game on September 13, 2024. A tie or cancellation results in a 50-50 split. Source: MLB.com official statistics.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on the outcome of the game originally scheduled for September 13, 2026. The market resolves 'Yes' if either team wins.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for September 13 at 1:37PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

If Baltimore wins the Baltimore vs Toronto professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026 at 1:37 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If Toronto wins the Baltimore vs Toronto professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026 at 1:37 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for September 13 at 1:37PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and ensure profit, while prediction markets reflect the aggregated beliefs of informed traders. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets may incorporate information not fully accounted for by sportsbooks. These differences can be particularly noticeable when there’s significant public interest or expert analysis surrounding this market. Both provide valuable insights, but prediction markets can sometimes offer a more accurate forecast due to their collective intelligence.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Predict may differ due to variations in user base, trading activity, and market-specific rules. Each platform attracts a different set of traders with potentially varying risk appetites and information advantages. Polymarket might see more activity from baseball experts, while Predict could have a broader range of participants. These differing dynamics can lead to discrepancies in the perceived probabilities of the various outcomes for the Orioles-Blue Jays game. Furthermore, the liquidity and volume on each platform can also influence price discovery, creating temporary divergences.

Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Key events like starting pitcher announcements, injury reports, and weather forecasts can all significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news regarding player performance or team strategy could also cause shifts in the odds. Major changes in public opinion, driven by expert analysis or media coverage, can also move the market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade this market effectively.