TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks whether Bad Bunny achieves specific levels of global daily views on YouTube within a defined timeframe. Each threshold represents a different level of viewership success, allowing participants to speculate on the artist's performance during that period. The outcome depends on whether any of the set thresholds are met at any point during the specified dates.
Kalshi
Each market specifies a unique threshold of global daily views that Bad Bunny must surpass on YouTube at any point between September 28, 2026, and October 4, 2026, for the market to resolve to 'Yes.' All markets utilize the same data source—YouTube Charts—accessed via a New York IP address to ensure consistency. The view counts reflect global totals, and the markets are purely descriptive, with no endorsement or affiliation implied from YouTube. If Bad Bunny's view count meets or exceeds any specified threshold during the period, the corresponding market resolves affirmatively; otherwise, it resolves negatively. The structure allows multiple markets to operate simultaneously, each with its own resolution criteria based on progressively higher view count benchmarks.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for Bad Bunny’s daily view counts during the specified period. Traditional analyst predictions often rely on historical data and subjective assessments, while this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders. If analysts predict a specific range for daily views, you can assess whether the implied probabilities in this market align with those expectations. Discrepancies between market odds and analyst opinions could present potential trading opportunities, suggesting the market may be undervaluing or overvaluing certain outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different potential daily view counts for Bad Bunny. The price of each contract reflects the perceived probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will fluctuate, providing a real-time assessment of the likely outcome. The market's depth—the number of contracts available at different price points—indicates the level of confidence traders have in each possibility. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for efficient discovery of the most accurate prediction.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count achieved by Bad Bunny across all major video platforms (such as YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram) between September 28, 2026, and October 4, 2026. The specific source used to verify the view counts will be a widely recognized and trusted source for digital media statistics, ensuring a fair and accurate determination of the winning outcome for this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding Bad Bunny’s new music releases, tour dates, or collaborations would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected viral trends featuring his music or appearances could also drive increased views. Furthermore, any news related to platform algorithms or changes in user engagement on major video platforms could influence the market. Finally, general public sentiment and media coverage surrounding Bad Bunny’s popularity will play a role in how traders assess the probabilities within this market.
