TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks whether Bad Bunny achieves specific high levels of global daily views on YouTube within a defined week. Each threshold represents a distinct performance milestone, with all thresholds evaluated against the same timeframe and data source.
Kalshi
All markets share a common evaluation framework: each resolves to "Yes" if Bad Bunny's global daily YouTube views exceed the specified threshold at any moment between October 5, 2026, and October 11, 2026. View counts are sourced from YouTube Charts using a New York IP address to ensure consistent geographic measurement. The markets are strictly observational and carry no endorsement from YouTube, with all references to YouTube serving only as descriptive context for data retrieval. Thresholds range incrementally from 22 million to 34 million views, allowing participants to assess the probability of achieving various levels of viral success during the specified period. The structure enables granular speculation on Bad Bunny's potential audience reach without requiring precise prediction of the exact view count.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of factors than traditional analysis might capture, incorporating real-time sentiment and unexpected events. If analysts predict a certain peak view count based on album releases and tour dates, this market will show whether traders agree or anticipate deviations. Discrepancies can highlight overlooked variables or differing interpretations of available data. It’s a fascinating way to gauge the wisdom of the crowd versus individual expertise regarding Bad Bunny’s potential reach.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the highest daily view count of Bad Bunny during the specified period. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that attempts to accurately represent the collective forecast for Bad Bunny’s viewership. The current market reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count Bad Bunny achieves across all major platforms (e.g., YouTube, Spotify, Apple Music) between October 5, 2026, and October 11, 2026. The data will be sourced from publicly available metrics and verified to ensure accuracy. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome matches the verified highest daily view count during that timeframe.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. A major announcement regarding Bad Bunny’s new music, a surprise collaboration with another artist, or a highly publicized tour announcement could all increase anticipated viewership. Conversely, unexpected negative publicity or a shift in music trends could lower expectations. Major social media trends or viral moments featuring Bad Bunny would also likely impact trading activity. Any news relating to streaming platform policies or changes in user behavior could also influence the market, as traders adjust their forecasts based on the latest information.
