TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks whether the Puerto Rican artist Bad Bunny achieves specific high levels of global daily views on YouTube during a one-week period in October 2026. Each threshold represents a different level of viewership success to be measured against actual performance data.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether Bad Bunny attains or exceeds a specified global daily view count threshold on YouTube during the period from October 12 to October 18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a unique numerical threshold, ranging incrementally from above 22 million to above 34 million views. The resolution relies exclusively on data accessed via YouTube Charts, with the view count evaluated using a New York IP address to ensure consistency. All markets explicitly disclaim any endorsement or affiliation with YouTube, clarifying that references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive. The outcome for each market is binary: 'Yes' if the threshold is met at any point during the specified window, and 'No' otherwise.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for this specific event, as comprehensive public forecasts for Bad Bunny’s daily view counts are limited. However, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders, representing their assessment of the likelihood of various outcomes. If analysts were to release predictions, comparing their estimates to the implied probabilities within this market would offer insight into whether the crowd is more or less optimistic than experts regarding Bad Bunny’s viewership during the specified timeframe.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different daily view counts for Bad Bunny. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust, providing a dynamic representation of expectations. The goal is to accurately predict the highest daily view count within the specified period.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count achieved by Bad Bunny across all major video platforms (e.g., YouTube, Twitch) between October 12, 2026, and October 18, 2026. The specific source used to verify the view counts will be a widely recognized and trusted data provider for online video statistics.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Announcements regarding Bad Bunny’s promotional activities, such as new music releases, live performances, or major media appearances, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected news related to competing artists or major events happening concurrently could also influence viewership. Furthermore, any changes in the algorithms or policies of major video platforms could affect how views are counted and reported, potentially moving this market as traders adjust their expectations.
