TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Above 13M
- Kalshi
Above 13M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 5, 2026
Time left: 02d:09h:43m
Will Ariana Grande have above 13M daily views at any point during October 26, 2026 - November 1, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks whether a famous pop artist achieves specific levels of global daily views on a video-sharing platform during a defined week. The outcome depends on the actual viewer numbers recorded, reflecting real-time audience engagement with the artist's content over that period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds of global daily views achieved by Ariana Grande on YouTube within the specified period from October 26 to November 1, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct view count threshold, ranging from above 13 million to above 20 million views. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' Ariana Grande must surpass the respective threshold at least once during the period. All markets utilize view counts reported from a New York IP address to ensure consistency, accessing data through YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting the 'Global' location filter. It is explicitly stated that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation between YouTube and the event organizer.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of factors than traditional forecasts, incorporating real-time information and diverse perspectives. If analysts predict a certain view count range based on past performance and promotional activity, this market will show whether traders agree or disagree, and to what degree. Discrepancies can highlight overlooked variables or differing interpretations of available data, offering a unique perspective on potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe a particular view count range is likely, the price of that contract increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of the most probable scenario for Ariana Grande’s highest daily view count during the specified timeframe.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The highest daily view count for Ariana Grande content between October 26, 2026, and November 1, 2026, will be determined by publicly available data from official sources. The contract corresponding to the correct view count range will then pay out to its holders, while other contracts will expire worthless. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome.
Several signals and events could significantly influence this market. Major announcements regarding new music releases, promotional appearances, or collaborations by Ariana Grande would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected viral trends or controversies involving the artist could also impact viewership. Furthermore, changes in the media landscape, such as the launch of a new streaming platform or a significant shift in social media algorithms, could affect how her content is consumed and viewed. Any news impacting her overall popularity or content accessibility has the potential to move this market.
