TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Amazon’s Market Cap end of 2026?
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Amazon’s Market Cap end of 2026?

Aug 5, 2026, 7:56 AM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$12,430
Volume 24h:
$1,611
147%
Liquidity:
$15,232
15%
Open interest:
$1,957N/A

$2.50-$3.00T

 - Polymarket

$2.50-$3.00T - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.50T and $3.00T at the end of 2026?

44%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 45¢ buys you 222 shares | Odds: 44% Total Payout: $222 | Net Profit: $122 Multiplier: 2.22x | ROI: 122% High Projected APY: 4,304% 77 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$2.50-$3.00T

Trade
44%
5%
Yes 45¢No 58¢
3¢
$1,272
$5,899
2%
77%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

$3.00-$3.50T

28%
1%
Yes 28¢No 85¢
13¢
$1,125
$2,153
67%
129%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

$2.00-$2.50T

20%
6%
Yes 37¢No 81¢
18¢
$1,150
$2,644
33%
47%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

<$2.00T

5%
Yes 20.3¢No 98.9¢
19.2¢
$1,150
$403
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

$4.00-$4.50T

5%
Yes 8.4¢No 99.1¢
7.5¢
$4,974
$256
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

$4.50T+

4%
Yes 7.7¢No 99.1¢
6.8¢
$4,396
$336
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

$3.50-$4.00T

4%
1%
Yes 7¢No 98.9¢
5.9¢
$1,166
$739
0%
4%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Amazon market cap market on Polymarket tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $1,611. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing Amazon’s potential market capitalization by the end of 2026, offering a visual representation of market sentiment and liquidity trends over time.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations for Amazon’s market cap. While analysts may incorporate long-term strategic assessments and financial modeling, this market captures trader sentiment influenced by recent earnings, market trends, and macroeconomic factors, sometimes showing divergence from consensus estimates.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will depend on authoritative financial data sources that officially report Amazon’s market capitalization as of the last trading day of 2026.

Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including Amazon’s quarterly earnings reports, major product launches, changes in global economic conditions, shifts in retail or cloud sector performance, and regulatory developments affecting large tech firms. Any news that alters expectations for Amazon’s revenue, profitability, or valuation could cause rapid movements in odds.