TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.3b

24H VOL:

$120,151,518

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,361,103,189

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,173,615,054

328,740

Markets across

32,986

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,864

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Science and Technology
Entertainment
Alphabet’s Market Cap end of August 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

Alphabet’s Market Cap end of August 2026?

Total volume:
$30,865
Volume 24h:
$3,051
638%
Liquidity:
$3,523
23%
Open interest:
$12,636
8%

5.13% or above

 - Kalshi

5.13% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 05d:18h:35m

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% on Aug 31, 2026?

94%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 108% 5 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.13% or above

Trade
94%
Yes 99¢No 38¢
37¢
N/A
$960
0%
11%
$614
5d 18h 35m
active
kalshi

5.11% or above

Trade
92%
Yes 100¢No 25¢
25¢
N/A
$1,163
0%
8%
$1,163
5d 18h 35m
active
polymarket

$4.00-$4.50T

Trade
90%
6%
Yes 94¢No 15¢
9¢
$563
$4,201
0.44%
23%
N/A
5d 23h 4m
active
kalshi

5.15% or above

Trade
66%
29%
Yes 72¢No 47¢
19¢
N/A
$599
21%
209%
$291
5d 18h 35m
active
kalshi

5.17% or above

Trade
61%
13%
Yes 57¢No 47¢
4¢
N/A
$1,241
17%
59%
$749
5d 18h 35m
active
kalshi

5.19% or above

Trade
33%
50%
Yes 36¢No 100¢
36¢
N/A
$1,409
8%
114%
$850
5d 18h 35m
active
kalshi

5.21% or above

Trade
21%
51%
Yes 29¢No 100¢
29¢
N/A
$1,240
21%
88%
$719
5d 18h 35m
active
kalshi

5.23% or above

Trade
19%
27%
Yes 28¢No 100¢
28¢
N/A
$1,190
11%
64%
$690
5d 18h 35m
active
kalshi

5.29% or above

Trade
14%
18%
Yes 14¢No 100¢
14¢
N/A
$752
15%
67%
$430
5d 18h 35m
active
kalshi

5.25% or above

Trade
13%
46%
Yes 26¢No 100¢
26¢
N/A
$1,511
36%
320%
$553
5d 18h 35m
active
kalshi

5.27% or above

Trade
10%
28%
Yes 23¢No 100¢
23¢
N/A
$3,139
73%
318%
$1,282
5d 18h 35m
active
kalshi

5.33% or above

Trade
10%
12%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$1,236
12%
58%
$498
5d 18h 35m
active
kalshi

5.31% or above

Trade
9%
11%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$871
29%
82%
$630
5d 18h 35m
active
polymarket

$3.50-$4.00T

Trade
6%
10%
Yes 9.9¢No 98.9¢
8.8¢
$363
$550
0%
46%
N/A
5d 23h 4m
active
polymarket

$4.50-$5.00T

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 7.1¢No 99¢
6.1¢
$613
$4,514
0%
12%
N/A
5d 23h 4m
active
polymarket

<$3.50T

Trade
4%
11%
Yes 6.9¢No 99¢
5.9¢
$392
$588
36%
82%
N/A
5d 23h 4m
active
kalshi

5.39% or above

Trade
3%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,014
0%
2%
$1,529
5d 18h 35m
active
kalshi

5.37% or above

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$2,236
0%
59%
$2,105
5d 18h 35m
active
kalshi

5.35% or above

Trade
2%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$551
0%
0.18%
$531
5d 18h 35m
active
polymarket

$6.00T+

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.9¢
0.5¢
$600
$346
0.32%
35%
N/A
5d 23h 4m
active
polymarket

$5.50-$6.00T

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.9¢
0.5¢
$452
$313
0%
41%
N/A
5d 23h 4m
active
polymarket

$5.00-$5.50T

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$541
$242
0%
61%
N/A
5d 23h 4m
active
Total markets: 22

Description

This event group focuses on two distinct financial metrics for Alphabet Inc. at the end of August 2026: its market capitalization and the yield of the 30-year U.S. Treasury. The Polymarket markets are structured around Alphabet's market cap falling within specific brackets, while the Kalshi markets are based on the 30-year Treasury yield exceeding certain thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets resolve on entirely different underlying metrics: Alphabet's market capitalization versus the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield.Hero tip: Treat these as separate bets since they resolve on different financial indicators. Do not assume correlation between Alphabet's stock performance and Treasury yields.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Alphabet’s market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of August 2026, using official exchange data and share counts. Market brackets include < $3.50T, $3.50T-$4.00T, $4.00T-$4.50T, $4.50T-$5.00T, $5.00T-$5.50T, $5.50T-$6.00T, and ≥ $6.00T.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on whether the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above specified thresholds (from 5.10% to 5.38%) on August 31, 2026. All thresholds resolve to Yes if met.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Alphabet's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 30Y U.S. Treasury as of August 31, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold, ranging from 5.10% to 5.38%, with a 'Yes' outcome if the yield exceeds the respective threshold. Expiration occurs at the earlier of 7:00 PM ET on the first business day following the official data release for August 31, 2026, or one week after that date. The structure allows multiple markets to resolve simultaneously, each corresponding to a specific yield level, thereby providing granular insight into market expectations for long-term interest rates.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Alphabet market cap market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time consensus and volume trends across platforms. It displays how traders on different prediction markets price the likelihood of various market cap outcomes for Alphabet by the end of August 2026. The view combines inputs from all participating platforms, offering a snapshot of collective investor sentiment and total volume of $27,102.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform may attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while the other could see slower, institutional-style betting. These dynamics create temporary mispricings, with Polymarket currently favoring Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of August 2026? at 89.5%, and Kalshi leaning toward Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% on Aug 31, 2026? at 94.0%.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will compare Alphabet’s market capitalization as recorded on major, recognized financial data sources at the close of August 2026. No single entity controls this process; instead, it relies on widely accepted public records.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles, including Alphabet’s quarterly earnings releases, major product launches, regulatory developments, and broader market volatility. Macroeconomic factors such as interest rate decisions or tech-sector performance may also influence trader sentiment. Any surprise guidance from management or competitive disruptions could cause rapid repricing as participants adjust their expectations for the company’s valuation by Aug 31, 2026.