TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the auction outcome for a specific artwork by Alma Thomas, determining whether it exceeds various price thresholds during a scheduled sale. The resolution depends solely on the final sale price achieved at the auction house on the specified date and time.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple threshold-based outcomes for the sale price of Alma Thomas's "Untitled (lot 105)" at a Sotheby's auction scheduled for October 7, 2026, at 11:00 AM EDT. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, ranging from above $40K to above $80K. The market resolves to "Yes" for any threshold if the final sale price meets or exceeds that threshold during the live auction. Verification is conducted by checking the "Lot Sold" amount displayed on Sotheby’s official website post-auction. If the sale price is reported in a currency other than USD, it will be converted using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of verification. It is explicitly stated that Sotheby’s has not endorsed these markets, and any references to Sotheby’s are purely descriptive and do not imply affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds on Kalshi reflect a different perspective than many art market analysts. While some experts predict a conservative estimate based on previous Alma Thomas sales, this market suggests a wider range of potential outcomes is possible. It's important to remember that prediction markets represent the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating diverse opinions and information not always captured in traditional forecasts. This market allows individuals to express their beliefs about the sale price, potentially offering a more dynamic and responsive forecast than static analyst reports.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different price ranges for the Alma Thomas painting. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that price range being the actual sale price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief about the outcome. The market's depth – the number of contracts available at each price – indicates the level of confidence in each potential outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and efficient expression of market sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final sale price of Alma Thomas’s Untitled (lot 105) is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official auction results released by the auction house. The market will determine which price range contract corresponds to the actual sale price, and those contract holders will receive a payout. It’s important to monitor news sources for the official announcement of the sale to understand when the market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Any news regarding the condition of the painting, increased media attention surrounding Alma Thomas's work, or significant sales of comparable artwork could all impact trading activity. Major economic shifts or changes in the art market's overall sentiment could also play a role. Additionally, prominent collectors publicly expressing interest in the painting or pre-auction estimates released by auction houses could significantly shift the probabilities reflected in this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential price fluctuations.
