TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The sale price of Alma Thomas's artwork Untitled at the same Sotheby's auction will be tested against several incremental thresholds, indicating its expected worth and appeal in the contemporary art market.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on whether the sold price of Alma Thomas's Untitled (lot 103) at the Sotheby's auction on October 7, 2026, exceeds specified thresholds. The outcome is verified from the 'Lot Sold' amount on Sotheby’s website, with any non-USD values converted using the prevailing exchange rate. Sotheby’s has not endorsed these markets, and references to Sotheby’s are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the prediction market offers a unique perspective compared to traditional art market analysis. While expert forecasts often rely on historical sales data and subjective valuations, this market aggregates the insights of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to a different assessment of the likely sale price. It’s important to note that analyst predictions are often point estimates, while this market represents a probability distribution across a range of potential outcomes, offering a more nuanced view than a single predicted value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different price ranges for the Alma Thomas painting. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the final sale price will fall within that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The market depth and volume indicate the level of confidence in each potential outcome, providing a transparent and dynamic pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome determined by the final hammer price achieved at the auction of Alma Thomas’s Untitled (lot 103). The final sale price, as reported by credible public sources covering the auction, will be used to determine which contracts payout. The market will settle to the price range that contains the actual sale price, with payouts distributed accordingly to contract holders. This ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution process based on publicly available information.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Any news regarding the condition of the painting, increased publicity surrounding the auction, or shifts in the broader art market could all impact trader sentiment. Major economic indicators or changes in collector demand for similar works by Alma Thomas could also play a role. Additionally, pre-auction estimates released by auction houses, and any notable bids during the auction preview, are likely to cause fluctuations in this market as traders react to new information.
