TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the auction outcome for a specific artwork, focusing on whether it achieves various price thresholds during a scheduled sale. The resolution depends solely on the final sale price achieved at the auction house on the specified date and time.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether the final sale price of Alma Thomas's Opus III (lot 101) at Sotheby's live auction on October 7, 2026, exceeds specified thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different price threshold, with the outcome determined by comparing the actual sale price to that threshold. The sale price is verified from the “Lot Sold” information displayed on Sotheby’s website post-auction. If the reported price is in a currency other than USD, it will be converted using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of verification. It is important to note that Sotheby’s has not endorsed these markets, and any references to the auction house are purely descriptive and do not imply affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the prediction market offers a unique perspective compared to traditional art market analysis. While art appraisers and auction house estimates provide initial valuations, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential buyers’ sentiment. Discrepancies may arise due to differing methodologies, access to information, or simply varying opinions on the artwork’s intrinsic value and future appreciation. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into the overall market perception of the Opus III painting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on whether the actual sale price of the Opus III painting will be above or below a certain level. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants regarding the likelihood of various outcomes, and the market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This creates a real-time gauge of expectations for the final sale.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final sale price of the Alma Thomas painting, Opus III (lot 101), is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official auction result announced by the auction house. The market will determine which participants correctly predicted whether the actual sale price falls above or below the price levels represented by the various contracts available on Kalshi. This provides a clear and objective determination of the market’s accuracy.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Major news regarding the artist Alma Thomas, such as renewed critical acclaim or inclusion in a significant exhibition, could increase demand and drive up prices. Broader economic indicators, like auction market trends or changes in art collector confidence, could also play a role. Additionally, any pre-auction publicity surrounding the Opus III painting itself—including expert analyses or media coverage—could significantly impact the market, as traders adjust their expectations based on new information.
