TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the auction outcome of an Alexander Calder artwork titled 'Untitled (lot 106)' scheduled for October 7, 2026. The focus is on determining whether the piece achieves various price thresholds during the live sale. Results are verified through official auction records.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple price thresholds for the sale of Alexander Calder's 'Untitled (lot 106)' at a Sotheby's auction on October 7, 2026. Each threshold represents a distinct market outcome, resolving to 'Yes' if the final sale price exceeds the specified amount. Verification is conducted by checking the 'Lot Sold' figure on Sotheby’s official website post-auction. Any reported values in non-USD currencies will be converted using the prevailing exchange rate at the time. It is explicitly stated that Sotheby’s has not endorsed these markets, and references to the auction house are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by Sotheby’s.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to external analyst forecasts for the sale price of the artwork. While art market analysts offer estimates, they often present a range of possibilities rather than precise probabilities. This market, however, aggregates the collective judgment of many traders, resulting in a continuously updated probability distribution for the final sale price. Comparing this to the average analyst estimate or the high/low range of predictions could reveal whether the crowd is more or less optimistic than experts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts that pay out a fixed amount if the actual sale price falls within the contract’s specified range. The prices of these contracts reflect the market’s collective belief about the probability of each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect changing expectations. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates available information.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final sale price of Alexander Calder’s Untitled (lot 106) is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to the value of 100 for the contract whose range includes the actual hammer price, and 0 for all other contracts. Factors influencing the final price, and therefore this market, include the overall health of the art market, the provenance of the piece, and the level of interest from potential buyers.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major announcements regarding the condition of the artwork, or changes in the auction house’s marketing strategy, could impact perceived value. Broader economic news, particularly related to the luxury goods market or investor confidence, could also play a role. Unexpectedly strong or weak results in comparable art auctions could shift market sentiment. Finally, any news related to the artist's legacy or the provenance of the piece could influence trading activity in this market.
