TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the auction outcome of Alexander Calder's artwork "Odalisque" at Sotheby's on October 7, 2026. The focus is on determining whether the final sale price exceeds various monetary thresholds during the live auction.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for the sale price of Alexander Calder's "Odalisque" (lot 107) at Sotheby's auction scheduled for October 7, 2026, at 11:00 AM EDT. Each market resolves to "Yes" if the final sale price surpasses a specific dollar amount, ranging from $200,000 to $400,000 in increments of $25,000. The outcome for all markets is determined by verifying the "Lot Sold" amount displayed on Sotheby’s official website immediately following the auction. If the sale price is reported in a currency other than USD, it will be converted using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of verification. It is explicitly stated that Sotheby’s has not endorsed these markets, and any references to the auction house are purely descriptive and do not imply affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this event, as comprehensive public forecasts for the Calder Odalisque sale price are limited. However, this market provides a unique perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to generate a probability-based forecast. If art market analysts were to issue price predictions, comparing those to the implied probabilities reflected in this market could reveal interesting insights into differing expectations and potential biases. The market’s current price reflects what traders collectively believe will happen.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential sale price ranges for the Calder Odalisque. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of that price range occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a particular price range is likely, the higher the contract price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time forecast of the expected sale price.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final sale price of Alexander Calder’s ‘Odalisque’ (lot 107) is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official auction results released by the auction house. The market will determine which price range contract corresponds to the actual sale price, and those holding winning contracts will receive a payout. Traders should monitor news sources for the official announcement to understand the final outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding the condition of the artwork, increased publicity surrounding the auction, or reports about strong interest from major collectors could all shift expectations. Economic indicators impacting the art market, such as changes in wealth or investment trends, could also play a role. Finally, pre-auction estimates released by art experts or the auction house itself will likely cause movement in this market, as traders adjust their positions based on new information and analysis.
