TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
More markets for the Saudi Professional League game, scheduled for April 4 at 2:00 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for total goals markets. Kalshi frames markets as 'more than X goals' (exclusive), while Polymarket frames identical thresholds as 'X or more goals' (inclusive), creating a one-goal offset in resolution logic for each corresponding pair.Hero Tip:
If you trade the same goal threshold on both platforms, verify the exact wording: Kalshi's 'more than 1.5' resolves YES at 2+ goals, while Polymarket's 'O/U 1.5' resolves Over at 2+ goals — they align. However, Kalshi's 'more than 2.5' (3+ goals) differs from Polymarket's 'O/U 2.5' (3+ goals) — they also align. The real divergence is that Kalshi offers markets at 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5, while Polymarket offers 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 with identical thresholds, but Kalshi's phrasing ('more than') is mathematically equivalent to Polymarket's ('X or more'). Upon closer inspection, both platforms resolve identically: Kalshi 'more than 1.5' = 2+ goals = Polymarket 'O/U 1.5' Over. The platforms are actually unified on total goals thresholds. However, Polymarket includes spread markets (Al Hilal -2.5, -1.5; Al Taawoun -2.5, -1.5) and a Both Teams to Score market that Kalshi does not offer, creating a scope divergence.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Aligned with Polymarket on total goals thresholds: Kalshi offers four total goals markets (more than 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 goals) that resolve identically to Polymarket's Over/Under markets at the same thresholds. However, Kalshi does not offer spread markets or a Both Teams to Score market. Kalshi states 'If Al-Taawoun and Al Hilal collectively score more than 1.5 total goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Aligned with Kalshi on total goals thresholds: Polymarket's O/U markets (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5) resolve identically to Kalshi's 'more than' phrasing. Additionally, Polymarket offers three market types Kalshi does not: two spread markets (Al Hilal -2.5, -1.5 and Al Taawoun -2.5, -1.5) and a Both Teams to Score market. Polymarket states 'This market will resolve to Over if Al Hilal Saudi Club and Al Taawoun Saudi Club combine to score 2 or more goals' for the 1.5 threshold.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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