TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

Kalshi:

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#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
polymarket

Which AI Lab will rank #3 by December 1, 2026?

Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM EST - Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$33,526
Volume 24h:
$889
87%
Liquidity:
$10,632
25%
Open interest:
$2,511N/A

Meta

 - Polymarket

Meta - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 1, 2026

Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?

39%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 41¢ buys you 244 shares | Odds: 39% Total Payout: $244 | Net Profit: $144 Multiplier: 2.44x | ROI: 144% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 47 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Meta

Trade
39%
8%
Yes 41¢No 64¢
5¢
$353
$5,883
0.68%
14%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
28%
9%
Yes 33¢No 77¢
10¢
$525
$2,135
24%
375%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
20%
2%
Yes 33¢No 79¢
12¢
$557
$5,636
0%
27%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Google

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 10.9¢No 96.9¢
7.8¢
$350
$7,376
0%
6%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
6%
Yes 13.3¢No 98.5¢
11.8¢
$421
$905
0%
35%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
5%
Yes 9.1¢No 98.8¢
7.9¢
$407
$1,510
0%
19%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Meituan

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 6.2¢No 99.5¢
5.7¢
$589
$1,182
25%
66%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
3%
Yes 5.9¢No 99.5¢
5.4¢
$289
$637
0%
64%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Tencent

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 99.8¢
2.8¢
$439
$1,404
17%
54%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Baidu

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.8¢
1.5¢
$569
$490
0%
93%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.7¢
1.1¢
$499
$766
0%
52%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$358
$684
0%
53%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$394
$696
0%
52%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Amazon

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$599
$668
0%
55%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Mistral

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$581
$704
0%
51%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

ByteDance

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$656
$490
0%
93%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Thinky

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$494
$674
0%
61%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

MiniMax

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$678
$433
0%
120%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Nvidia

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$623
$415
0%
58%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Microsoft

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$542
$342
0%
35%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

StepFun

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$709
$494
0%
88%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI Lab Style Control market displays the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probability of different outcomes shifts over time, giving you a sense of market sentiment. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $684 and the total volume traded is $33,526. This information allows you to monitor the market’s activity and potentially identify trading opportunities related to expectations surrounding the AI Lab's style control capabilities.

Currently, the odds in this market reflect a collective prediction about the AI Lab’s success with style control. These predictions are often compared to those of industry analysts and expert polls, which currently suggest a similar level of uncertainty. However, prediction markets like this one have the advantage of aggregating information from a diverse range of participants, potentially leading to more accurate forecasts than any single analyst’s opinion. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts and this market represent different methodologies for assessing the same underlying event.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of each share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price discovery process is driven by supply and demand; if more traders believe an outcome is likely, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the AI Lab demonstrates a significant advancement in style control technology, as assessed by publicly available information. The specifics of what constitutes a “significant advancement” are determined by the market’s design and are focused on observable results. Traders should review the market rules on Polymarket for further details regarding the resolution process.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any announcements from the AI Lab regarding their progress on style control, positive or negative research publications, or demonstrations of the technology's capabilities would likely cause price movement. Broader developments in the field of artificial intelligence, particularly those related to generative models and image manipulation, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected regulatory changes or shifts in public perception regarding AI safety could also contribute to volatility in this market.