TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which film will rank as the second most viewed movie on Netflix's US charts for the week ending on October 25, 2026. The outcome depends entirely on viewer preferences and streaming behavior during that specific period.
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specified movie appears in the exact #2 position on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on October 27, 2026. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, October 26, 2026. The published chart reflects viewing data from the week ending the previous Sunday (October 25, 2026). None of these markets imply any endorsement from Netflix, and all references to the platform are used descriptively without suggesting affiliation or approval from the company.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates an ability to incorporate a wider range of information than traditional forecasts, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. While analysts may focus on critical reviews and marketing spend, the market reflects the expectations of many individuals regarding actual viewership. Discrepancies can arise when the market anticipates a ‘sleeper hit’ or discounts the impact of negative press, differing from what analysts project based on conventional metrics.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each movie’s probability of being the #2 US Netflix movie. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the market. A higher price indicates a greater perceived chance of success, while a lower price suggests lower confidence. The market efficiently aggregates diverse perspectives into a single, real-time forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the #2 movie on Netflix in the US will be determined by official Netflix rankings data. The market will then settle to 100 for the winning movie and 0 for all others. Traders should monitor official Netflix announcements and industry news sources leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts that could influence the final outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major promotional pushes by Netflix for specific movies, critical reviews released closer to the release date, and unexpected viral trends on social media are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, the release of competing content on other streaming platforms could impact viewership and shift the odds. Any news regarding cast member popularity or director reputation could also influence trader sentiment and lead to price adjustments in this market.
