TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA
- Polymarket
Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 16, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Oct 16, 1:02 PM EST
Polymarket
Don't Chart (from GTAVI: The Album) - Cardi B, Grand Theft Auto VI
Description
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the second most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the week labeled October 16. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If Spotify does not release its #2 song for the week labeled October 16 by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.
Polymarket
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the second most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the week labeled October 16. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If Spotify does not release its #2 song for the week labeled October 16 by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for popular music. While analysts often rely on streaming numbers and radio play, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who consider a wider range of factors, including social media trends and viral potential. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked aspects or differing interpretations of the same data. It’s important to note that analyst predictions are often qualitative, whereas this market provides a quantifiable measure of belief.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each song’s likelihood of reaching the #2 spot. The price of each share reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s depth and liquidity are influenced by the level of interest and the availability of information surrounding the competing songs.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Spotify charts are published and the #2 song for the week of October 16th is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official ranking provided by Spotify, representing the most popular song according to their streaming data. The market will then settle, and traders will receive payouts based on the final outcome and their holdings in the corresponding shares.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok or YouTube, major artist endorsements, or even significant media coverage could all shift public attention and influence streaming numbers. New song releases from popular artists could also disrupt the current rankings. Any news related to the competing songs, such as chart updates or promotional campaigns, will likely cause fluctuations in the market as traders adjust their predictions based on the latest information.
