TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 3:20 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs in the U.S. and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the second most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled October 30. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If Spotify does not release its #2 song for the week labeled October 30 by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The Weekly Top Songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.
Polymarket
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs in the U.S. and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the second most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled October 30. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If Spotify does not release its #2 song for the week labeled October 30 by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The Weekly Top Songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional polls or individual analyst predictions. While analysts might focus on specific factors like radio play or critical reception, the market incorporates a multitude of signals, including social media trends and streaming data. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked factors or differing interpretations of available information, offering a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in a song reaching the #2 spot. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a song will be #2, the higher the share price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly adapt to new information and changing sentiment regarding the US Spotify charts.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official US Spotify charts are published and the song ranked #2 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official ranking as reported by Spotify, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their holdings in the market at the time of resolution.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. A sudden surge in streams for a particular song, driven by viral social media trends or major playlist placements, would likely shift the odds. Unexpected news or controversies surrounding artists could also influence listener behavior and, consequently, chart positions. Major award nominations or performances could also create momentum for certain tracks. Monitoring streaming numbers, social media engagement, and music industry news will be key to understanding potential movements in this market before Oct 31, 2026.
