TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 2:14 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs in the U.S. and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the second most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled October 16. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If Spotify does not release its #2 song for the week labeled October 16 by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The Weekly Top Songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.
Polymarket
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs in the U.S. and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the second most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled October 16. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If Spotify does not release its #2 song for the week labeled October 16 by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The Weekly Top Songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While music industry analysts often rely on subjective assessments of song popularity and radio play, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. This means the probabilities reflect what a diverse group of traders believe, based on their own research and insights. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as markets can incorporate information that isn’t immediately apparent in standard analysis.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different songs. The price of each share directly reflects the probability of that song being #2 on the US Spotify chart. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular song, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price and probability. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective belief.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official US Spotify chart for the relevant week is published and verifiable from credible public reporting. The song listed at #2 on that chart will determine the winning outcome. The market will then be settled, and shares in the winning song will be redeemable for one unit of the underlying asset, while shares in losing songs will be worth zero. Traders should monitor official chart releases as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected surges in streaming numbers for a particular song, major social media trends, or prominent placements in popular media (like TikTok or television shows) could all shift the odds. Additionally, any news related to artist activity, such as album releases or promotional campaigns, could influence listener behavior and therefore chart position. Keep an eye on music news and streaming data for potential catalysts that could move this market before Oct 17, 2026.
