TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This set of markets tracks which song will secure the second position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 24, 2026. Each market represents a different song competing for this ranking, reflecting anticipation around popular music trends and listener preferences at that specific time.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified song ranks exactly #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week ending October 24, 2026. The outcome is determined solely by Billboard's official chart rankings for that week. All markets explicitly state that Billboard has not endorsed these products, and any references to Billboard or the Hot 100 are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by Billboard. The resolution hinges exclusively on chart position, with no additional performance or contextual factors considered.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a different perspective than traditional music industry predictions, as traders weigh a broader range of factors, including social media trends and streaming data. While analysts may focus on radio play and established artist popularity, the market incorporates real-time data and the wisdom of the crowd. Discrepancies can highlight overlooked factors or differing interpretations of the same information, offering a unique insight into potential chart performance.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each song’s probability of reaching number two. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. As more traders buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their assessments of each song's potential. This creates a real-time assessment of the likely chart position.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 24, 2026, is officially published. The song listed at number two on that chart will be considered the winning outcome. The result will be verified against credible public sources, such as Billboard’s official website and reporting. Traders will be able to view the final chart position and confirm the resolution of this market shortly after the official announcement is made.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major album releases from competing artists, unexpected viral trends on social media, and shifts in streaming numbers are all potential catalysts. A song gaining traction on TikTok or YouTube could rapidly increase its perceived chance of reaching number two. Furthermore, any news regarding artist collaborations or promotional campaigns could also influence trading activity. Unexpected radio play or positive critical reviews could also move the market, as traders adjust their predictions based on new information and changing sentiment.
