TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
These markets track which song will rank as the second most popular track in the United States during a specific week in 2026, reflecting public music preferences and chart performance.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified song appears exactly at the #2 position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week ending October 10, 2026. The resolution depends solely on the official Billboard Hot 100 ranking published for that week. All markets explicitly state that references to Billboard and the Hot 100 are purely descriptive and do not imply endorsement or affiliation between Billboard and the platform hosting these markets. No other conditions, tiebreakers, or alternate rankings influence the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. While music critics and industry analysts offer predictions based on their expertise, this market aggregates the views of a diverse group of traders. Often, the market can identify under- or overvalued outcomes that traditional analysis might miss. Discrepancies can arise from differing information access, biases, or simply the wisdom of the crowd. It’s valuable to consider both perspectives when evaluating the potential for a song to reach #2 on the Billboard Hot 100.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a song’s probability of reaching #2. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the song's chances. Traders can set their own buy and sell orders, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism driven by supply and demand. This allows for a constantly updated evaluation of the potential chart position.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 10, 2026, is officially published. The song listed at the #2 position on that chart will determine the winning outcome. Verification will be based on credible public reporting from Billboard, the official source for the chart rankings. The resolution process ensures an objective determination of the market’s outcome, based on the established chart data.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Major album releases from competing artists, unexpected viral trends on social media, and significant radio airplay for potential contenders could all shift trader sentiment. Positive or negative press coverage, endorsements from influential figures, and even changes in streaming platform algorithms could also impact the perceived chances of different songs. Any developments that alter the public’s listening habits or a song’s visibility have the potential to influence trading activity and the overall market price.
