TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which Netflix show will rank second globally during a specific week, based on the streaming platform's official charts. Participants can speculate on the popularity of various series and specials by monitoring viewer trends and release schedules.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published on October 27, 2026, which reflects viewership data for the week ending the previous Sunday. Markets close at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart publication, ensuring participants cannot react to real-time data after betting closes. Each market corresponds to a specific show, and resolution depends solely on whether that show occupies the #2 position on the specified chart. No endorsement or affiliation exists between Netflix and the event operator; references to Netflix are used descriptively only.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional media predictions or analyst reports. While analysts may focus on critical reception or pre-release hype, the market reflects what people are actually watching and engaging with. Discrepancies can arise from analysts underestimating the popularity of certain genres or overlooking the impact of social media trends. It’s a fascinating way to gauge whether the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ aligns with professional assessments of entertainment success.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a show being the #2 global Netflix show. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information, creating a dynamic and responsive pricing mechanism. This allows the market to quickly incorporate new data points, such as viewership numbers or critical reviews, into its assessment of each show's chances.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on publicly available data regarding the ranking of Netflix shows globally, as measured by a widely recognized and independent source of viewership metrics. The market will identify which show ultimately holds the #2 position during the specified timeframe, providing a clear and objective resolution to the prediction. The outcome will be based on verifiable data, ensuring a fair and transparent process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpectedly strong viewership numbers for a newly released show would likely cause its odds to increase, while disappointing performance for a highly anticipated series could lead to a decline. Critical reception, particularly from influential reviewers, can also impact market sentiment. Major social media trends or viral marketing campaigns could further shift perceptions of a show's popularity. Any significant news related to Netflix's content strategy or global viewership patterns could also influence trading activity in this market.
