TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 2:05 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click “Apps” at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to “Top Paid Apps” and click “See All.” Then under “Paid Apps” in the “Top Charts” section, you’ll see the list that will be used as the resolution source for this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-paid).
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click “Apps” at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to “Top Paid Apps” and click “See All.” Then under “Paid Apps” in the “Top Charts” section, you’ll see the list that will be used as the resolution source for this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-paid).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the top US App Store app. While some analysts predict established apps will maintain their position, this market indicates a higher probability of a new contender reaching the top spot. It's important to remember that analysts often rely on past performance and company reports, while this market incorporates the collective wisdom of traders reacting to real-time information and anticipating potential shifts in user preferences. This difference in approach can lead to diverging viewpoints.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The current price indicates what traders, as a group, believe is the fair probability of an app holding the #1 position on Oct 9, 2026.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the app listed as #1 in the US Apple App Store's paid apps chart at a defined time on that date will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from the Apple App Store and will be verified against credible public sources. The market will then settle based on which app held that top position.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 9, 2026. A major marketing campaign launched by a competing app, a significant update to a popular app introducing new features, or even a viral trend on social media could all influence user downloads and app store rankings. Unexpected news regarding a leading app developer or a change in Apple's App Store policies could also create volatility. Any event that alters public perception or user behavior has the potential to shift the odds in this market.
