TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

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$130,522,377

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OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

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30,214

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2,681

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5

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0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?
polymarket

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$11,277
Volume 24h:
$2,523
9,031%
Liquidity:
$33,679
110%
Open interest:
$10,415N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?

17%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 19¢ buys you 526 shares | Odds: 17% Total Payout: $526 | Net Profit: $426 Multiplier: 5.26x | ROI: 426% APY not meaningful 93 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
17%
1%
Yes 19¢No 86¢
5¢
$13,651
$2,016
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.7¢
0.3¢
$20,028
$9,262
37%
54%
N/A
1d 3h 37m
active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bab el-Mandeb shipping market tracks the current odds that 0 ships will transit the strait on any date by the resolution date. You can view the implied probability of this outcome, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $2,523. The total volume traded on this market is $11,277. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and track how predictions evolve over time. The dashboard displays a clear visual representation of the market's activity, providing valuable insights for informed decision-making.

Comparing prediction market odds to those offered by sportsbooks or traditional polling data reveals how differently informed each group is. While sportsbooks primarily cater to entertainment and may factor in biases, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and analysis. Currently, the implied probability on Polymarket differs from recent analyst estimates regarding the likelihood of continued disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This divergence suggests that traders possess unique insights or are weighing different factors than those considered by conventional sources.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of 0 ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb by the resolution date. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates a strong consensus among traders, with 16.5% believing the outcome will occur, as demonstrated by the trading activity and share prices.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether or not any ships are documented to have transited the Bab el-Mandeb strait before the resolution date. The market will then settle based on this verified information, providing a clear and objective determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor news sources and shipping data for updates as the resolution date approaches, as these will influence the final settlement.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Escalations in geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, such as increased attacks on commercial vessels, would likely increase the probability of continued disruptions and push the price higher. Conversely, successful diplomatic efforts leading to a de-escalation of conflict and a safe passage corridor could lower the price. Changes in major shipping companies’ routes, or announcements regarding naval protection efforts, would also be key catalysts. Monitoring these developments is crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.