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$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

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2,388,728,490

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$1,441,166,947

406,422

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30,383

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2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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Zuffa Boxing: Gonzalez vs. Salomon (Catchweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Gonzalez vs. Salomon?

Volume:
$295,778

Gonzalez vs. Salomon

 - Polymarket

Gonzalez vs. Salomon - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 13, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 10:23 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Gonzalez vs. Salomon

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,370
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Canelo Alvarez

View
72%
3%
Yes 72¢No 28¢
100¢
N/A
$158,225
N/A
N/A
$82,137
Settled
No
kalshi

Christian Mbilli

View
28%
2%
Yes 28¢No 72¢
100¢
N/A
$136,183
N/A
N/A
$70,177
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the Zuffa Boxing catchweight bout between Abel Gonzalez and Raul Salomon, part of a larger fight card’s prelims. Currently, the consensus probability favors Zuffa Boxing: Gonzalez vs. Salomon (Catchweight, Prelims) at 86.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution based on the official result as reported by UFC.com. Keep an eye on the fight itself, scheduled for resolution on September 13, 2026, as that date represents the end of the betting period and will determine the official outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market is for a completely different boxing match, rendering it irrelevant to the advertised event.Hero tip: Trade only the Polymarket contract, as the Kalshi market is unrelated and will resolve based on an entirely different fight.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the winner of the Gonzalez vs. Salomon fight, or 50-50 for a draw, no contest, or postponement beyond September 26, 2026. Source: UFC.com. "This market will resolve to "Gonzalez" if Abel Gonzalez is officially declared the winner..."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either Canelo Alvarez or Christian Mbilli wins their fight scheduled for September 12, 2026. "If Canelo Alvarez wins the Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli boxing match originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Gonzalez" if Abel Gonzalez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Raul Salomon at Zuffa Boxing: Benn vs. Garcia, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Salomon" if Raul Salomon is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.ufc.com/.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the outcome of the Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli boxing match originally scheduled for September 12, 2026. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished, provided it occurs within two weeks of the original date.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' that can differ from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market is driven purely by participants’ beliefs about the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public sentiment strongly diverges from the sportsbook’s initial assessment. It's common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information and adjust odds accordingly, offering a potentially more dynamic and accurate forecast compared to fixed sportsbook lines.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise due to several factors. Different user bases on each platform may have varying levels of expertise or access to information regarding the Gonzalez vs. Salomon fight. Trading volume also plays a role; lower volume on one platform can lead to greater price volatility and divergence. Furthermore, each platform has its own unique fee structure and market-making dynamics, which can influence how prices are set and adjusted. These factors contribute to the independent price discovery process on each venue.