TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Zuffa Boxing: Garcia vs. Morales (Lightweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Garcia vs Morales?

Volume:
$861,404

Sean Garcia

 - Kalshi

Sean Garcia - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 13, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 9:08 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Sean Garcia

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$134,869
N/A
N/A
$91,041
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Garcia vs. Morales

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$2,840
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Abraham Morales

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$723,695
N/A
N/A
$581,752
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the Sean Garcia vs. Abraham Morales boxing match, part of the Zuffa Boxing event on September 12, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of Garcia vs. Morales resolving to Garcia winning is 99.0%. This prediction aggregates data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution determined by the official results reported on https://www.ufc.com/. Keep an eye on the official weigh-in results on September 11, 2026, as any last-minute changes could influence the fight’s dynamic.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines resolution based on the specific winner, while Kalshi resolves to 'Yes' if either fighter wins, creating a fundamental difference in market scope.Hero tip: The Kalshi market is essentially asking 'Will a winner be declared?' while Polymarket asks 'Who will win?'. Kalshi will pay out on either fighter winning, while Polymarket requires correctly predicting the specific winner.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Garcia or Morales based on official winner declaration, with a 50-50 resolution for draws, no contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond September 26, 2026. Key Quote: "This market will resolve to "Garcia" if Sean Garcia is officially declared the winner...or to "Morales" if Abraham Morales is officially declared the winner."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either Sean Garcia or Abraham Morales wins the match. Key Quote: "If Sean Garcia wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Abraham Morales wins...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Garcia" if Sean Garcia is officially declared the winner of the fight against Abraham Morales at Zuffa Boxing: Benn vs. Garcia, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Morales" if Abraham Morales is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.ufc.com/.

Kalshi

If Sean Garcia wins the Sean Garcia vs Abraham Morales boxing match originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Abraham Morales wins the Sean Garcia vs Abraham Morales boxing match originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes for the Garcia vs. Morales fight. Currently, the aggregated view across these platforms suggests a consensus expectation, with a combined volume of $861,404. This allows users to see how the prediction market is pricing the likelihood of different fighters winning. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the market’s sentiment, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders on both venues. It’s important to note that the current volume of $801,380 indicates the level of activity and interest in this particular event.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the underlying mechanisms of price discovery. Sportsbooks set odds based on their internal models and aim to profit from balancing action on both sides. Prediction markets, however, rely on the collective intelligence of traders who buy and sell contracts representing possible outcomes. This can lead to more accurate probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. While sportsbooks may incorporate public sentiment, this market reflects a more direct expression of informed opinion, potentially offering a different perspective on the likelihood of each fighter prevailing.