TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Zuffa Boxing 8: Diaz vs. Teran (Bantamweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win Diaz vs. Teran?

Volume:
$297,365

Jose Teran Santibanez

 - Kalshi

Jose Teran Santibanez - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 28, 9:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jose Teran Santibanez

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$108,967
N/A
N/A
$55,904
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Floyd Diaz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$188,316
N/A
N/A
$156,968
Settled
No
polymarket

Diaz vs. Teran

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$82
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a bantamweight preliminary boxing match between Floyd Diaz and his opponent at Zuffa Boxing 8, scheduled for late June 2026. The market resolves based on the official winner declaration from the fight.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Opponent identity mismatch (Jose Teran Santibanez vs Andres Teran) and fundamentally different edge-case resolution logic. Kalshi resolves both outcomes to Yes, while Polymarket uses winner-specific outcomes with a 50-50 fallback for draws and cancellations.Hero tip: This divergence creates settlement risk. Kalshi's structure (Yes/Yes) suggests a potential data entry error—confirm the actual fight card and opponent name on UFC.com. If a draw occurs, Polymarket resolves 50-50 while Kalshi's logic is undefined. Do not assume these markets will settle identically.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary structure resolves to Yes if Floyd Diaz wins OR if Jose Teran Santibanez wins. No explicit handling of draws, cancellations, or postponements. Both winner scenarios map to the same outcome (Yes), which is logically anomalous for a match market.
  • Polymarket: Winner-specific resolution: Diaz wins = Diaz, Teran wins = Teran. Opponent named as Andres Teran (not Jose). Draws, no contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond July 11, 2026 resolve to 50-50. Source: UFC.com.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Diaz" if Floyd Diaz is officially declared the winner of the fight against Andres Teran at Zuffa Boxing 8: De Los Santos vs. Valenzuela, scheduled for June 27, 2026. It will resolve to "Teran" if Andres Teran is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 11, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.ufc.com/.

Kalshi

This event consists of markets tracking the outcome of the Floyd Diaz vs Jose Teran Santibanez boxing match originally scheduled for June 28, 2026. Each market resolves to Yes if its designated fighter wins the bout. If the match is postponed or delayed, markets remain open and will close after the rescheduled match concludes, provided the rescheduling occurs within two weeks of the original date.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on crowd-sourced pricing rather than traditional sportsbook models. Instead of a bookmaker setting fixed lines, traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in each outcome. This mechanism often produces odds that differ from sportsbooks because market participants include professional bettors, casual forecasters, and informed insiders all competing simultaneously. Sportsbooks adjust lines to manage liability; prediction markets adjust through continuous trading. Both can offer valuable signals, but they reflect different incentive structures and participant bases.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct rule sets, liquidity pools, and user demographics. Kalshi and Polymarket may have different fee structures, settlement timelines, or verification procedures that influence how traders price risk. Arbitrage opportunities sometimes emerge when one platform prices the outcome higher than the other, but transaction costs and withdrawal delays can prevent instant convergence. Monitoring both venues reveals which market participants are more confident and where smart money is concentrating its bets.