TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
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MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 2:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Zizou Bergs and Arthur Fery will compete in their 2026 Wimbledon Men's Singles Round of 32 match on July 4. This market determines the exact final set score of the professional tennis match.
The market resolves based on the final set score of the match. Possible outcomes include Zizou Bergs winning 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2, or Arthur Fery winning 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. If a player retires, markets that can be unconditionally settled based on completed play resolve accordingly; those that cannot are settled at Fair Market Price at the Exchange's discretion.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant pools and incentive structures. On prediction markets like this one, traders risk real capital on outcomes, creating strong financial motivation for accuracy. Sportsbooks, by contrast, balance action across both sides to manage risk and extract margins. This market's odds may lead or lag sportsbook lines depending on which venue attracts sharper early information. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus differs and highlight potential mispricings.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each possible exact score outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome share reflects the collective belief in that result, ranging from near-zero to near-100 cents. As traders place bids and offers, prices adjust in real time. You can enter limit or market orders to express your view on the final score, and your position's value fluctuates with market sentiment until resolution.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the Bergs vs Fery match concludes and the final score is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the exact scoreline at the end of the event. Traders holding shares in the correct final score receive their payout, while incorrect predictions expire worthless. Resolution timing depends on when the match finishes and official confirmation becomes available, typically within hours of completion.
Several factors may shift odds in this market before Jul 4, 2026. Player form, recent head-to-head records, and injury updates can reshape expectations about likely scorelines. Betting market movement and sharp money flowing into specific outcomes often precedes broader price shifts. Media coverage highlighting tactical matchups or player momentum may influence trader positioning. As the match date approaches, increased trading volume typically narrows odds around the most probable scores. Real-time match developments—early goals, red cards, or momentum swings—will drive the most dramatic repricing once play begins.