TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 1, 4:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which player will win the second set of a specific tennis match at the 2026 US Open. It reflects the competitive performance of the two athletes during that particular segment of play. The outcome depends entirely on the players' skills, strategies, and conditions during the match.
If Yuliia Starodubtseva wins set 2 in the Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Ella Seidel professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Women Singles Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ella Seidel wins set 2 in the Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Ella Seidel professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Women Singles Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes.
Compared to traditional sportsbook odds, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more nuanced outlook shaped by active trader sentiment rather than institutional lines. While sportsbooks may set prices based on broader public betting trends, this market allows participants to react instantly to new data, potentially creating tighter spreads or sharper movements around key moments in the match.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders directly set the price through their bids and offers, which determines the current implied probability for each outcome. The top chance percentage shown reflects the aggregate wisdom of Kalshi participants, adjusting dynamically as new information emerges — such as player form, injuries, or in-game momentum shifts — leading to rapid price changes throughout the event.
This market resolves around Aug 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the match result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of set two will be determined by the official match records, and this market will close immediately after the final point of that set is played and reported.
Key signals that could shift this market include injury updates or strategic changes for either player before or during set two, breaking news coverage of performance metrics, and live in-game momentum swings such as early breaks of serve. Any development that impacts the perceived likelihood of either player prevailing in the second set can trigger rapid price adjustments on Kalshi as traders react.