TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which song achieves the highest position on YouTube's Weekly Top Songs chart in the United States for a specific week in 2026. It reflects the competitive landscape of digital music popularity and viewer engagement on the platform during that period.
Kalshi
The event determines the outcome based on which specified song attains the number one position on YouTube's Weekly Top Songs United States Chart for the week dated October 9 to October 15, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different song, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular song is ranked #1 for the specified chart week. All markets are independent, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. Importantly, these markets and their associated products are not endorsed by YouTube, and any references to YouTube or its trademarks are used descriptively and do not imply any affiliation or endorsement between YouTube and the event organizer. The focus is solely on chart performance for the defined period.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates an ability to incorporate information more rapidly than traditional forecasts, potentially identifying emerging trends before analysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies or biases; analysts may rely on established metrics, while this market reflects the aggregated views of a diverse group of participants. If analysts consistently overestimate or underestimate a song’s popularity compared to the market’s pricing, it could indicate a valuable signal for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a song’s likelihood of reaching the top spot. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular song, its price increases, indicating growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and produce a real-time assessment of probabilities, based solely on trader activity.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official YouTube charts for the corresponding week are released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The song at the top of the charts at that time will determine the winning outcome of this market. The resolution will be based on the official rankings published by YouTube, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders should monitor official announcements to stay informed about the resolution process and timing.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok or Instagram can rapidly boost a song’s popularity, influencing trader sentiment. Major media appearances or endorsements from influential artists could also shift the odds. Release dates for new music from competing artists are crucial; a highly anticipated release could challenge the current frontrunners. Finally, any controversy or public relations events surrounding an artist or song could impact its chart performance and, consequently, the pricing in this market.
