TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The weekly YouTube Top Songs chart in the USA reflects the most streamed tracks over a specific period, showcasing current listener preferences and viral trends. The ranking is determined by aggregated view counts and engagement metrics from YouTube users across the country.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the specified song is ranked #1 on YouTube's Weekly Top Songs United States Chart for the week dated Oct 2 - Oct 8, 2026. All markets are independent, with no endorsement from YouTube, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates an ability to incorporate a wider range of information than traditional forecasts, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. However, analysts may offer nuanced qualitative assessments that aren't easily captured by market prices. Discrepancies between the two can signal areas of disagreement or uncertainty regarding the likely outcome of which song will be the USA's top hit.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a song's probability of reaching the top spot. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of the most likely winner. The market's efficiency relies on informed participants actively trading based on their insights and analysis.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official weekly chart rankings are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official charts, as determined by YouTube, will serve as the definitive source for determining which song held the number one position in the USA during the relevant week. The resolution will reflect the song that is officially declared the top song by YouTube's charting system, based on their established methodology.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Major promotional pushes from artists, viral trends on social media, and significant media coverage can all influence a song’s chart performance. Unexpected releases from popular artists, or controversies surrounding a particular track, could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, changes in streaming habits and listener preferences can play a role in determining which song ultimately reaches the top spot, creating opportunities for traders to react to evolving dynamics.
