TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,176,691
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,958,194
394,660
Markets across
30,119
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 6, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 3 - July 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 3 - July 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-money incentives and continuous price discovery. While film industry analysts rely on historical data, marketing spend, and comparable releases, this market aggregates the beliefs of traders who profit or lose based on accuracy. Analysts may publish point estimates or ranges, whereas market prices reflect probabilistic consensus updated in real time. Both approaches offer value: analysts provide detailed methodological reasoning, while markets reward those who identify mispricings before others do.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—such as opening weekend box office below or above a specific threshold—has a price between 0 and 100 cents, representing the implied probability. As traders place orders, the price adjusts to reflect new information and shifting expectations. Higher prices indicate stronger market belief in that outcome, while lower prices suggest skepticism. The spread between bid and ask prices reflects liquidity and uncertainty.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, once the opening weekend box office figures are finalized and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual domestic box office gross earned during the film's opening weekend. Once the final numbers are reported by industry tracking services and confirmed, the market settles based on whether the total falls into the predicted range. Traders holding the correct outcome receive their payout.
Several catalysts can shift odds significantly before resolution. Trailer releases, critical reviews, and social media buzz influence trader sentiment about audience appeal. Major competitor releases or scheduling changes alter the competitive landscape. Marketing campaign intensity and celebrity endorsements signal studio confidence. Real-world events affecting cinema attendance, such as holidays or competing entertainment, matter too. As the opening weekend approaches, early ticket sales data and advance booking metrics become increasingly important. Each new signal prompts traders to reassess probabilities and adjust positions accordingly.
