TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.9b
24H VOL:
$225,546,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,816,443,416
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,867,230,198
490,493
Markets across
36,414
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,838
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
What will Young Manhood & Other Donatable Organs streams reach?
Above 3M
- Kalshi
Above 3M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 25, 2026
Time left: 19h:03m:45s
Will Young Manhood & Other Donatable Organs by Zach Bryan have above 3000000 streams during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week?
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Description
This event tracks the streaming performance of a specific song over a defined week. It examines whether the song achieves various streaming milestones, reflecting audience engagement and popularity during that period. The outcome depends entirely on the official streaming data reported after the tracking week concludes.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple streaming thresholds for the song "Young Manhood & Other Donatable Organs" by Zach Bryan over the U.S. tracking week from October 16 to October 22, 2026. Each threshold represents a distinct milestone, ranging from above 1 million streams to above 20 million streams. The market resolves based on the official data provided by Luminate’s API at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. If the reported streams meet or exceed any of the specified thresholds, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Luminate Data, LLC serves as the neutral metrics provider and does not endorse or participate in the prediction market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for streaming numbers, as these are often qualitative estimates or projections based on prior album performance and social media engagement. However, this market provides a quantifiable measure of belief regarding the album’s success. If analysts are generally optimistic about the album’s performance, we might expect to see the odds for higher streaming counts increase on Kalshi. Discrepancies between market prices and analyst opinions could indicate areas where the crowd perceives information differently.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices will adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The market is dynamic, and prices can fluctuate rapidly based on trading activity and external factors influencing expectations for the album’s streaming performance.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official streaming numbers for “Young Manhood & Other Donatable Organs” during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total streams across major streaming platforms. The specific streaming counts will be sourced from publicly available data and verified to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual performance of the album during the specified tracking week.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Early indicators like pre-save numbers, social media buzz, and initial critical reviews will likely influence trading activity. Major media appearances by Zach Bryan, announcements of promotional partnerships, or even unexpected events impacting music consumption habits could all move the market. Any news regarding potential delays or changes to the album’s release schedule would also be a key catalyst. Ultimately, any information that alters expectations about the album's popularity and streaming potential will affect prices on Kalshi.
