TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 180K
- Kalshi
Above 180K - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 29, 2026
Closed: Jun 28, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
These markets track the U.S. streaming and sales performance of Olivia Rodrigo's song "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" during the week of June 19–25, 2026, measured in Album Equivalent Units (AEU). Each market corresponds to a different performance threshold, allowing traders to bet on whether the song will achieve specific levels of commercial success during that tracking period.
Kalshi
This event comprises multiple tiered markets, each measuring whether "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" by Olivia Rodrigo achieves a specified threshold of Album Equivalent Units during the June 19–25, 2026 tracking week in the United States. Album Equivalent Units combine sales, streams, and other consumption metrics into a single measure of commercial performance. Each market resolves independently based on whether the song's AEU total exceeds its designated threshold (ranging from above 20K to above 300K). Resolution occurs on the Sunday immediately following the June 19–25, 2026 tracking week, using data provided by Luminate Data, LLC, a neutral provider of music industry metrics. Traders may participate in any or all threshold markets simultaneously, with each resolving to Yes if the song surpasses its specific AEU target and No otherwise.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because traders incorporate real-time information, fan sentiment, and streaming data that formal projections may lag. This market aggregates decentralized trader expectations rather than relying on a single analyst or label estimate. Comparing the current odds here to published industry forecasts can reveal whether the market is pricing in optimism or skepticism relative to professional predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The bid-ask spread reflects real-time supply and demand, and prices move as new information emerges. Traders can enter limit or market orders to adjust their positions, and the market price at any moment represents the consensus probability among active participants.
This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, once the second-week album equivalent unit data becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by official chart reporting and industry-standard metrics for album performance. Until that date, traders can continue to adjust positions based on new releases, chart movements, and market developments.
Key catalysts include streaming performance in the first week, radio airplay trends, social media momentum, and any major promotional announcements or collaborations. Chart debuts and early sales data will significantly influence trader expectations. Competitor album releases, playlist placements, and fan engagement metrics can all shift the market as traders reassess the likelihood of specific second-week performance levels.
