TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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OPEN INTEREST:
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406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 19, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This event determines which song from Olivia Rodrigo's album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' will have accumulated the most streams on Spotify by a specific deadline, excluding two particular tracks. The winner is identified by checking Spotify's stream counts at a precise moment in time.
On June 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, the total stream count for each eligible song on Olivia Rodrigo's album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' will be determined using the Spotify desktop app. The eligible songs exclude 'drop dead' and 'the cure'. Whichever eligible song displays the highest total stream count at that exact moment will be the resolution outcome. Stream counts are frozen at 10:00 AM ET; any updates or changes occurring after that time will not be considered. The measurement is taken from a single snapshot of the Spotify desktop app at the specified time, ensuring a definitive and objective determination of the most-streamed track among the qualifying songs.
Prediction market odds aggregate real-time trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate live streaming metrics, social media momentum, and radio airplay trends that analysts may lag in capturing. While music industry analysts rely on historical patterns and label promotion data, this market reflects continuous updates from participants who monitor Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube charts daily. The crowd-sourced nature of prediction markets can surface emerging consensus faster than periodic analyst reports, though both sources offer complementary perspectives on which song will ultimately lead.
This market resolves around Jun 19, 2026, at which point the outcome will be confirmed once the final streaming figures are verifiable from credible public sources. The winning song is determined by total streams accumulated across major platforms by the resolution deadline. Once the data is published and verified, the market settles automatically, and traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout. Until that moment, positions remain open and prices continue to fluctuate based on incoming information.
Major streaming milestones, playlist placements on Spotify's top editorial playlists, and viral social media moments can all shift trader conviction significantly. Chart debuts, radio rotation announcements, and surprise performance appearances generate listener spikes that move streaming counts. Additionally, competitor releases or unexpected chart performance from other tracks on the album may redirect listener attention. Real-time streaming data releases, award show performances, and music video releases are key catalysts traders monitor closely when adjusting their positions leading up to the deadline.