TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love: First Week Album Equivalent Units
kalshi

you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Volume:
$323,314

Above 400K

 - Kalshi

Above 400K - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 21, 2026

Closed: Jun 21, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 400K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$80,580
N/A
N/A
$15,051
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 450K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$69,136
N/A
N/A
$9,404
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 350K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30,203
N/A
N/A
$7,743
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 480K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,282
N/A
N/A
$13,576
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 460K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,940
N/A
N/A
$6,380
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 470K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16,630
N/A
N/A
$6,749
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 475K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,457
N/A
N/A
$7,787
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 300K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,741
N/A
N/A
$1,249
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 440K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,365
N/A
N/A
$1,719
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 410K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,249
N/A
N/A
$1,034
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 250K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,211
N/A
N/A
$1,186
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 420K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$926
N/A
N/A
$708
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 430K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$893
N/A
N/A
$822
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 100K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$737
N/A
N/A
$621
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 200K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$679
N/A
N/A
$658
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 150K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$462
N/A
N/A
$461
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 461K

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$448
N/A
N/A
$423
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 500K

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,121
N/A
N/A
$9,566
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 490K

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,115
N/A
N/A
$7,109
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 550K

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,063
N/A
N/A
$5,904
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 800K

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,706
N/A
N/A
$4,202
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 600K

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,561
N/A
N/A
$1,843
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,607
N/A
N/A
$1,564
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 650K

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$457
N/A
N/A
$448
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 950K

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$357
N/A
N/A
$306
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 29

Intro

This market tracks whether Olivia Rodrigo's track "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" will exceed 100,000 album equivalent units during its first tracking week in mid-June 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome carries a probability of 99.0%, based on resolution criteria from official album equivalent unit data. The market resolves on June 21, 2026, following the completion of the June 12–18 tracking week, which will determine whether the track surpasses the 150,000 album equivalent unit threshold used for settlement.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on album equivalent units reported by Luminate Data for the specified tracking week in the U.S. market. Each threshold independently determines whether equivalent units exceeded that specific level, with results announced on the Sunday immediately following the June 12-18, 2026 tracking week. Luminate Data serves as the neutral provider of these metrics and does not endorse or participate in market outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether Olivia Rodrigo's album will achieve above 400,000 Album Equivalent Units during the June 12–18, 2026 tracking week. You can monitor the current chance percentage, view the price history of the outcome, and observe 24-hour trading volume on Kalshi. The market reflects trader conviction about first-week performance, with total group volume of $323,314 and recent 24-hour activity of $20,154. This single-venue dashboard provides transparency into how the prediction market is pricing Rodrigo's commercial debut week performance.

The market resolves on Jun 21, 2026, after the June 12–18, 2026 tracking week concludes and Album Equivalent Units are officially reported. The outcome is determined by whether Olivia Rodrigo's album reaches the 400,000 AEU threshold during that specific week. Album Equivalent Units combine album sales, track sales, and streaming activity into a single metric used by the music industry to measure commercial performance. Once official data is published, the contract settles based on whether the threshold was met or not.

Several factors could shift trader sentiment before resolution. Major radio or streaming playlist placements could boost first-week performance expectations. Chart performance of lead singles or promotional activity by the label may signal momentum. Industry reports on pre-order numbers or early streaming data could provide clues about trajectory. Unexpected delays or changes to the album release date would alter the tracking week calculation. Competitive releases in the same week could cannibalize market share. Social media trends, critical reviews, or artist announcements about tour or features may influence demand. Traders will adjust positions based on these signals as they emerge closer to the June 12–18 tracking window.