TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 450,000
- Kalshi
At least 450,000 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 20, 2026
Closed: Jun 18, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Olivia Rodrigo's song "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" will achieve at least 100,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart during the week immediately following its wide release. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by Hits Daily Double chart data, with the market settling based on whether the track reaches at least 275,000 Activity (Combined Sales) for that first full week. Watch the official chart rankings on June 19, 2026, when first-week performance data becomes available.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the "Activity" column figure from the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of the album. The chart used is dated Thursday, per Hits Daily Double's updated publishing schedule. Each market resolves Yes if the reported activity (combined sales) meets or exceeds its specified threshold (ranging from 100,000 to 500,000). If data is unavailable or partially unavailable by June 26, 2026, all affected markets resolve No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time aggregation of trader beliefs and are often more dynamic than traditional analyst forecasts. While music industry analysts may rely on historical chart data, radio airplay projections, and streaming trends, prediction markets incorporate live sentiment shifts as release dates approach and early performance signals emerge. The current market probability provides a crowd-sourced alternative to static analyst estimates, updating continuously as new information becomes available and traders adjust positions based on chart performance indicators and industry developments.
The market resolves on Jun 19, 2026, marking the end of the first full week following the wide release of you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love. Resolution is determined by whether the song's combined activity on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart meets or exceeds the 400,000 threshold during that specific week. Official chart data from the relevant tracking authority will serve as the source of truth for settlement. Traders should monitor release announcements and chart tracking services to anticipate the resolution window and final outcome determination.
Key catalysts include the official wide release date announcement, early streaming and radio performance metrics, social media momentum and fan engagement levels, playlist placements on major platforms, and real-time chart position updates as the tracking week progresses. Chart performance from comparable recent releases in the same genre can also influence trader expectations. Media coverage, award nominations, or viral moments tied to the song could accelerate activity. Additionally, any label marketing pushes, collaborations, or unexpected promotional events in the days leading up to or during the tracking week may shift market odds as traders reassess the likelihood of reaching the 400,000 activity threshold.
