TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 7:40 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming baseball game between two professional teams. Each market corresponds to a specific run differential threshold that determines the outcome. The resolution depends entirely on the final score of the game and how many runs separate the winning and losing teams.
These markets resolve based on the run differential in the Yomiuri Giants versus Yokohama DeNA BayStars game scheduled for September 13, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team exceeds the specified run margin defined in each individual market: Yokohama DeNA BayStars winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 runs, or Yomiuri Giants winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 runs. All markets share the same underlying event – the officially recorded final score of the game as scheduled. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all team names, logos, and trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook has mispriced a team's chances, the prediction market may show a different probability. It's common to see prediction markets outperform traditional odds over time.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Yomiuri Giants versus Yokohama DeNA BayStars spread, as determined by official league standings. The market will determine whether the Giants win by over 1.5 runs, and the final price of the winning contract will reflect the accuracy of the market's predictions. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the market's resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Key player injuries on either the Yomiuri Giants or Yokohama DeNA BayStars would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected changes in team performance, such as a winning or losing streak, could also shift market sentiment. News regarding managerial decisions, weather forecasts impacting game schedules, or even significant public endorsements could all influence trading activity. Any information that alters perceptions of each team's chances of winning by the specified spread has the potential to move the market.