TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 1, 8:24 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. It examines different thresholds for how many runs separate the winning and losing teams. The event provides insight into expectations around the competitiveness or dominance in the matchup.
The event evaluates multiple possible outcomes of a baseball game between the Yokohama DeNA BayStars and the Yomiuri Giants, scheduled for August 1, 2026. Four distinct markets exist, each corresponding to a specific run differential scenario. If the Yomiuri Giants win by more than 2.5 runs, the first market resolves to Yes. If the Yomiuri Giants win by more than 1.5 runs (but not exceeding 2.5), the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the Yokohama DeNA BayStars win by more than 1.5 runs, the third market resolves to Yes. Finally, if the Yokohama DeNA BayStars win by more than 2.5 runs, the fourth market resolves to Yes. Each market operates independently, and only the specific condition corresponding to the actual game result triggers a Yes resolution for that market. The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect the collective wisdom of traders betting on this market, often showing sharper or more nuanced lines compared to traditional sportsbook odds. While sportsbooks set their spreads based on analytics and risk management, prediction markets let participants bet directly on their outlook, which can lead to tighter spreads or faster adjustments as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread is calculated based on the official score after the game concludes, and the market settles accordingly. No further trading will occur after that point, locking in all positions based on the confirmed result.
Injuries to key players, changes in pitching rotations, weather delays, or standout individual performances can all shift this market. Traders will react to any news that affects the perceived scoring potential of either team, with volume potentially spiking around starting lineups or late-game updates. Momentum swings during the match itself may also cause rapid price adjustments.