TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 31, 7:30 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. It reflects how fans and analysts might assess the relative strength of the teams by betting on whether a team will win by a specific number of runs or more. The event is tied to a scheduled game, with resolution based purely on the final score.
The event consists of four separate markets, each resolving based on the margin of victory in the Yokohama DeNA BayStars vs Yomiuri Giants Japan NPB game scheduled for July 31, 2026. The first market resolves to Yes if the Yomiuri Giants win by more than 2.5 runs. The second market resolves to Yes if the Yomiuri Giants win by more than 1.5 runs. The third market resolves to Yes if the Yokohama DeNA BayStars win by more than 1.5 runs. The fourth market resolves to Yes if the Yokohama DeNA BayStars win by more than 2.5 runs. All markets share the same underlying game and time, and each has an associated secondary rule clarifying that Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League and that all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a different outlook than traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks may incorporate sharp lines and adjustments, prediction markets let traders vote with their dollars based on their own research and expectations, sometimes producing tighter or more volatile pricing depending on recent performance and news.
On Kalshi, this market uses a dynamic odds model where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The current implied probability reflects the collective wisdom of participants, adjusted for liquidity and market depth. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices can shift rapidly based on new information, trading volume, and shifts in sentiment around team performance and pitching matchups.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread is determined by the official game results, and the market settles based on whether Yokohama DeNA covers or fails to cover the posted run line.
In the coming weeks, key signals that could shift this market include starting pitcher announcements, injury updates for star players, and changes to team rosters through trades or call-ups. Weather forecasts for the game date may also influence expectations for run scoring. As Jul 31, 2026 approaches, any last-minute bullpen moves or performance trends could cause rapid adjustments in market odds.