TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 21, 5:20 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two baseball teams in a scheduled match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether the winning team secures a lead beyond specific run thresholds. Outcomes are determined purely by the final score difference, regardless of other game factors.
The event consists of four distinct outcome markets centered on the run differential between the Yokohama DeNA BayStars and the Hanshin Tigers in their scheduled game. Each market resolves based on whether the winning team achieves a victory margin exceeding either 1.5 or 2.5 runs. Specifically, two markets address scenarios where the Hanshin Tigers win by more than 2.5 runs or more than 1.5 runs, while the other two cover corresponding situations for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. All markets operate independently, with each having its own resolution criteria tied solely to the final score difference. The secondary rules clarify that the platform hosting these markets has no official affiliation with the Japan NPB league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective intelligence of traders on Kalshi, aims to reflect the true probability of an outcome, though discrepancies can arise due to differing information or risk assessments. It’s common to see prediction markets move more efficiently and react faster to new information than traditional betting venues, potentially offering a more accurate read on the likely result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the price of these contracts determines the implied probability of each outcome. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards a collective assessment of the likelihood of each scenario. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the willingness of traders to take the opposite side of a bet, providing a dynamic and real-time estimate of expectations for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars versus Hanshin Tigers spread.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the final spread result of the Yokohama DeNA BayStars versus Hanshin Tigers game. The platform will verify the result against official game data to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual spread, and contracts will be settled accordingly. Traders will then receive payouts or be required to cover losses based on their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Yokohama DeNA BayStars or Hanshin Tigers would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team performance, such as winning or losing streaks, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions affecting game play, or even significant shifts in public opinion as reflected in sports news and analysis, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade positions.