TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 8:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. Participants assess whether one team will win by a specific number of runs or more. The event provides different thresholds for victory margins, allowing varied perspectives on how decisively a team might win.
The event consists of four markets, each evaluating different run differential thresholds for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars vs Hanshin Tigers game scheduled for September 20, 2026. The first market resolves to Yes if Hanshin Tigers win by more than 2.5 runs. The second market resolves to Yes if Hanshin Tigers win by more than 1.5 runs. The third market resolves to Yes if Yokohama DeNA BayStars win by more than 1.5 runs. The fourth market resolves to Yes if Yokohama DeNA BayStars win by more than 2.5 runs. All markets share the same underlying game and time, and each has an associated secondary rule clarifying that Kalsci is not officially connected with the Governing League and that all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as an event approaches. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. However, sportsbook odds can still offer a useful comparison point, and discrepancies may present opportunities for arbitrage. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Yokohama DeNA BayStars versus Hanshin Tigers spread, specifically whether the BayStars win by over 2.5 runs. Traders will be able to see the final outcome reflected in their positions on Kalshi after the event concludes and the results are officially announced.
Several factors could influence this market. Any significant injuries to key players on either the Yokohama DeNA BayStars or the Hanshin Tigers would likely cause shifts in the odds. Major pitching changes, unexpected lineup adjustments, or even weather forecasts impacting game conditions could also move the market. Furthermore, news regarding team morale, coaching decisions, or even public sentiment could all play a role in how traders adjust their positions in this market leading up to Sep 20, 2026.